Monday, January 18, 2021

Wilt's Free Throws

 Wilt Chamberlain is the second leading scorer of all time. Right behind Michael Jordan. But, he couldn't shoot free throws. He once missed 22 straight free throws. That seems worth investigating. First what are the chances? He made 51.1% of his free-throws during his career. In other words he has a 48.9% chance of missing. So to miss two straight would be .489 x .489 = .239121 or a 23.9% chance. Twenty-two in a row? That would be .489 to the 22nd power. That comes out to 0.000000146. 

Just for fun, I took the reciprocal. That is almost seven million. He shot over eleven thousand free throws in his career. I thought missing 22 in a row might be somewhat likely. But no, it isn't. There is a lot of math here a person could play with. Wilt wasn't the worst ever. Andre Drummond makes 38.6% of his free throws. You could figure the probability for him missing 22 in a row.

Could a typical player do this? Lets suppose we want to find out, what percent would you normally have to shoot to have a 50% probability of of missing 22 in a row.  The equation would be x^22 = .50. Using the log and inverse log on your calculator, you come up with 96.9%. That is the chance you miss a shot. So, that means your free throw success rate would be 3.1%. Not good.



Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Election Results

 There was an important Senate election in Georgia (on the website I was looking at it was "Georiga"). I saw this :

Candidate A   51.5%  -  1,957,641

Candidate B   48.5%  -  1,844,815

That was with 87% of the vote counted.

If the vote is split evenly the rest of the way, Candidate A wins, obviously. What percent would be needed? I figured it was my duty as a citizen to find out.

There are a total of 3,802,456 votes so far with 87 % in. That means there must be a total of:

0.87x = 3,802,456

x = 4,370,639

Candidate A needs at least half of that, which is 2,185,319.

With a little subtraction there are 586,183 votes left and he need 227,678 of them. Candidate A needs 40.1% of the remaining votes. That sounds about right. Certain sections get counted at different times. So its not over. 


Update - Its not decided yet, but Candidate A now has 50.02% of the vote. About as close as it can get.